October 17, 2026 Boxing Predictions & Upset Analysis
THIS WEEKEND’S BIGGEST UPSET THREATS 🥊 OCTOBER 17
Fabio Wardley, Michael Gomez Jr and Cristian Cangelosi lead the upset discussion this weekend. Here is the thinking behind the picks, from the headline fights to the prospects on the undercard.
See all October 17 picks and percentages
Fabio Wardley 33% vs Daniel Dubois 67%
Wardley dropped Dubois twice in their first fight. His power gives him a real chance to overturn the rematch, even if he’s losing rounds.
PICK: Dubois — KO/TKO/DQ 53%
Michael Gomez Jr 32% vs Louie O’Doherty 68%
Gomez’s professional experience and improved form at lightweight make him dangerous. His recent stoppage of McGregor adds to the threat.
PICK: O’Doherty — decision 46%
Cristian Cangelosi 45% vs Jaime Osuna 55%
Cangelosi’s international amateur background and longer professional experience give him a credible route to winning rounds. This is our closest matchup.
PICK: Osuna — decision 38%
Nelson Birchall 82% vs Levi Giles 18%
PICK: Birchall — KO/TKO/DQ 45%
Birchall by decision: 37%
Bakhodir Jalolov 85% vs Sol Dacres 15%
PICK: Jalolov — KO/TKO/DQ 51%
David Garcia 74% vs Angel Carrillo 26%
PICK: Garcia — decision 46%
Marco Romero 91% vs Braulio Ferreira 9%
PICK: Romero — KO/TKO/DQ 60%
Armando Resendiz 84% vs Koen Mazoudier 16%
PICK: Resendiz — KO/TKO/DQ 53%
Brandon Figueroa 84% vs Tomoki Kameda 16%
PICK: Figueroa — decision 45%
Sebastian Fundora 90% vs Ermal Hadribeaj 10%
PICK: Fundora — KO/TKO/DQ 63%
Adam Olaniyan vs. Dan Garber
Olaniyan's world-youth pedigree and early stoppage run support a clear ability advantage. Garber brings 23 bouts and a southpaw look, but six of his nine defeats were stoppages. Four rounds limit the time available to finish.
Straight-Up Pick: Adam Olaniyan — 98%
Method Pick: KO/TKO/DQ — 60%
Aaron Noriega vs. Leonardo Baez
Noriega has two recorded stoppage wins, but that is too little evidence to rate him near-certainty. The Argentine Baez has considerably more professional experience but a long losing run and no recorded knockout wins in his earlier 5–20 profile. Over four rounds, I give points a narrow method lead.
Straight-Up Pick: Aaron Noriega — 95%
Method Pick: Decision — 52%
Fawas Aborode vs. Rashid Omar
Aborode's repeated Scottish elite titles and international amateur experience give him more foundation than his brief pro record suggests. Omar has only two stoppage defeats in nine losses, making a six-round decision the more persuasive method.
Straight-Up Pick: Fawas Aborode — 95%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
Issiah Hamilton-Allen vs. Jensen Irving
Hamilton-Allen's three wins have all gone the four-round distance. Irving has been stopped only three times in 40 defeats. That combination strongly favors a points win over a prospect stoppage.
Straight-Up Pick: Issiah Hamilton-Allen — 97%
Method Pick: Decision — 85%
Leighton Birchall vs. Alejandro Morales Chazaro
Birchall has three stoppages in five wins and has already completed a six-round win. Chazaro has considerably more pro rounds; his earlier 9–8–2 profile recorded only one stoppage defeat. That durability keeps decision ahead of stoppage despite Birchall's finishing record.
Straight-Up Pick: Leighton Birchall — 94%
Method Pick: Decision — 57%
Manny Safari vs. Jake Pollard
Safari's decorated youth-amateur background supports the clear favorite role. Pollard's seven stoppage losses across 123 bouts indicate considerable survival experience. In a four-round debut, Safari on points is much more likely than a quick finish.
Straight-Up Pick: Manny Safari — 98%
Method Pick: Decision — 84%
Tony Curtis vs. Kerim Agius
Curtis has more professional experience, a completed eight-round win and only three stoppages in 14 victories. Agius has no recorded knockout wins. That makes Curtis's points route stronger than his stoppage route, even though Agius has been stopped once.
Straight-Up Pick: Tony Curtis — 90%
Method Pick: Decision — 66%
Zayn Ahmed vs. Kasey Bradnum
Ahmed has one stoppage in three wins. Bradnum has 11 stoppage defeats in 50 losses, so the stoppage is a real alternative, but most of his defeats have still gone the distance. Four scheduled rounds keep decision first.
Straight-Up Pick: Zayn Ahmed — 97%
Method Pick: Decision — 63%
Mr. Magic
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