How do we decide whether a knockout bet offers value? Here are the two examples from our latest X posts, with each number explained in plain language.

Prices used: Iglesias anytime KO/TKO −340 and Schofield anytime KO/TKO +150, as discussed on 10/6/2026. These calculations use our existing estimates and those quoted prices.

10/8/2026 — Osleys Iglesias vs Oliver Zaren

The bet: Iglesias anytime KO/TKO at −340.

Our estimate is an 82% chance Iglesias wins by KO/TKO. That leaves a 18% chance this bet loses, because 100 − 82 = 18. An Iglesias decision win would also lose this knockout bet.

1. Where do our fair odds come from?

Fair odds are the price that would break even if our estimate is accurate.

82 ÷ 18 × 100 = 455.56
Our fair odds are approximately −456.

The 82 is our estimated percentage that the KO/TKO bet wins. The 18 is the percentage that it loses. At exact fair odds, risking $455.56 to win $100 balances those chances.

2. What does the sportsbook price mean?

−340 means risk $340 to win $100 profit.
For a $100 bet: $100 ÷ 340 × 100 = $29.4118 profit if it wins. Total return is about $129.41, including your original $100.

3. What is the break-even percentage?

This is how often the bet must win to avoid losing money over time at the quoted price.

340 ÷ (340 + 100) × 100 = 77.27%

The 340 is the amount risked. The 100 is the profit from a win. The sportsbook price requires a 77.27% win rate to break even.

4. Where does the edge come in?

Our 82% − break-even 77.27% = +4.73 percentage points.

Our estimated KO/TKO chance is 4.73 percentage points higher than the win rate needed at −340. That difference is our edge.

5. What is the EV?

EV means expected value: the estimated average profit or loss per bet over many comparable bets, assuming our probability estimate is accurate.

For every $100 risked:

Winning part: 0.82 × $29.4118 = $24.12
Losing part: 0.18 × $100 = $18.00
EV: $24.12 − $18.00 = +$6.12 per $100 bet.

Here, 0.82 is 82% written as a decimal, and 0.18 is 18% written as a decimal.

Imagine 100 comparable $100 bets that win exactly 82 times and lose 18 times:

82 wins × $29.4118 profit ≈ $2,411.76
18 losses × $100 = $1,800.00
Net profit ≈ $611.76 on $10,000 wagered.

Iglesias summary
Our KO/TKO estimate: 82%
Fair odds: −456
Quoted odds: −340
Break-even: 77.27%
Edge: +4.73 percentage points
EV: +$6.12 per $100
Expected return on amount wagered: +6.12%

10/10/2026 — Floyd Schofield vs Lucas Bahdi

The bet: Schofield anytime KO/TKO at +150.

Our estimate is a 45% chance Schofield wins by KO/TKO. That leaves a 55% chance this bet loses, because 100 − 45 = 55. A Schofield decision win would also lose this knockout bet.

1. Where do our fair odds come from?

55 ÷ 45 × 100 = 122.22
Our fair odds are approximately +122.

The 55 is our estimated losing percentage. The 45 is our estimated winning percentage. At exact fair odds, a $100 bet would win $122.22 profit.

2. What does the sportsbook price mean?

+150 means a $100 bet wins $150 profit.
Total return is $250, including your original $100.

3. What is the break-even percentage?

100 ÷ (150 + 100) × 100 = 40%

The 100 is the amount risked. The 150 is the profit from a win. At +150, this bet needs to win 40% of the time to break even.

4. Where does the edge come in?

Our 45% − break-even 40% = +5 percentage points.

Our estimated KO/TKO chance is five percentage points higher than the win rate needed at +150.

5. What is the EV?

For every $100 risked:

Winning part: 0.45 × $150 = $67.50
Losing part: 0.55 × $100 = $55.00
EV: $67.50 − $55.00 = +$12.50 per $100 bet.

Here, 0.45 is our 45% winning chance, and 0.55 is our 55% losing chance.

Imagine 100 comparable $100 bets that win exactly 45 times and lose 55 times:

45 wins × $150 profit = $6,750
55 losses × $100 = $5,500
Net profit = $1,250 on $10,000 wagered.

Schofield summary
Our KO/TKO estimate: 45%
Fair odds: +122
Quoted odds: +150
Break-even: 40%
Edge: +5 percentage points
EV: +$12.50 per $100
Expected return on amount wagered: +12.5%

Both examples have positive EV at the quoted prices under our estimates. Edge measures the difference in win probability; EV measures the expected profit relative to the amount wagered.

The 100-bet examples illustrate the math. Actual results will vary, and positive EV does not guarantee either bet wins. These are anytime KO/TKO calculations; a round cutoff creates a different bet and needs its own probability.

@MrMagicBoxing