Sizing Bets by Model Edge

Our bankroll scale uses model edge as the primary measure for stake size. Expected value (EV) remains an important secondary measure and is shown alongside edge in our fight analysis.

Edge = our estimated probability − the odds’ break-even probability. Edge is measured in percentage points. For example, fair odds of −160 imply a 61.5% chance, while market odds of +100 imply 50%: an edge of approximately 11.5 points.

Applying the Scale

Stake = current bankroll × bankroll bet percentage. With a $1,000 bankroll, the stake ranges are $10–$20, $30–$40, $50–$60, $70–$80, and $90–$100. Stake bands are proportionally reduced from the previous 15% maximum to a 10% maximum, rounded to whole percentages with a 1% minimum. The chart sets a stake range, not an exact stake within that range. Assign the band using edge rounded to one decimal place. Below a 1.0-point edge, no bet. The maximum stake is 10% of current bankroll.

For straight moneyline bets, a selection must also be our straight-up pick. An underdog showing positive value does not qualify if we still pick the opponent to win. Moneyline calculations use two-way probabilities, with a draw treated as a push where the sportsbook rules provide for it.

Edge and EV

Edge compares probabilities; EV estimates the average profit or loss per dollar wagered if our probability is accurate. EV = estimated win probability × decimal odds − 1. A 60% chance at +100 produces a 10-point edge and +20% EV. Under this scale, a 10-point edge falls in the 3–4% bankroll bet range.

This is our chosen staking scale, not a guarantee of profit. Model probabilities are estimates; large stakes, especially 10% of bankroll, can produce substantial drawdowns.