Two knockout bets at +150, with stakes of 12% of bankroll on Iglesias and 3% on Schofield. Prices quoted on 10/6/2026.

10/8/2026 — Quebec City

Osleys Iglesias vs Oliver Zaren

Projected winner: Iglesias — 96%
Projected method: KO/TKO — 82% anytime

BET: Osleys Iglesias to win by KO/TKO in rounds 1–6
Odds: +150
Stake: 12% of bankroll — $729.98

Our estimated chance of this bet winning: 62%
Fair odds: −163
Break-even probability: 40%
Edge: +22 percentage points
EV: +55%

We favor Iglesias to impose his power and pressure early. Our estimate gives him a 62% chance of finishing Zaren within six rounds, comfortably above the 40% required to break even at +150.

For every $100 bet, a win pays $150 profit, returning $250 total. Estimated EV is +$55 per $100 wagered.

The stoppage must come in rounds 1–6. A later stoppage or decision victory does not cash this bet.

10/10/2026 — Chicago

Floyd Schofield vs Lucas Bahdi

BET: Floyd Schofield to win by KO/TKO anytime
Odds: +150
Stake: 3% of bankroll — $144.17

Our estimated chance of this bet winning: 45%
Fair odds: +122
Break-even probability: 40%
Edge: +5 percentage points
EV: +12.5%

Schofield’s speed and explosive offense give him a credible stoppage opportunity against Bahdi. Our 45% KO/TKO estimate makes +150 a positive-value price, with a smaller edge and stake than the Iglesias bet.

For every $100 bet, a win pays $150 profit, returning $250 total. Estimated EV is +$12.50 per $100 wagered.

Any Schofield KO/TKO victory during the fight cashes this bet. A decision victory does not.

Bankroll Allocation

10/8 — Iglesias: 12% of $6,083.14 — $729.98
10/10 — Schofield: 3% of $4,805.68 — $144.17

These are two separate straight bets. Each stake uses the bankroll for its fight date and is rounded to the nearest cent.

Our probabilities are estimates. Positive EV does not guarantee a winning bet, and the Iglesias round cutoff carries additional timing uncertainty.

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